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Guinea-Bissau

Report of the Secretary-General on the progress made with regard to the stabilization and restoration of constitutional order in Guinea-Bissau (S/2018/791)

Attachments

I. Introduction

  1. The present report, submitted pursuant to paragraph 28 of Security Council resolution 2404 (2018), is my fourth report on the progress made by Guinea-Bissau with regard to the stabilization and restoration of constitutional order in the country. It provides an update on relevant developments since my previous report, of 23 August 2017 (S/2017/715), and includes recommendations on the continuation of the sanctions regime, pursuant to Council resolution 2404 (2018) and in line with paragraph 12 of resolution 2048 (2012).

  2. In fulfilment of the above request from the Security Council, the Department of Political Affairs undertook an assessment, in cooperation with the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS). During the same period, the Chair of the Security Council Committee established pursuant to resolution 2048 (2012) concerning Guinea-Bissau visited Bissau from 25 to 27 June 2018. A representative of the Secretariat participated in the Chair’s meetings with key stakeholders.

II. Key findings

  1. Since my previous report, there have been some encouraging signs of progress towards the resolution of the political and institutional impasse in Guinea -Bissau. Consensus on a new inclusive Government has been achieved, plenary sessions of the National Assembly have resumed, a state budget has been adopted, and the date for holding legislative elections has been set for 18 November 2018. The appointment of Aristides Gomes as Prime Minister and the possibility that José Mario Vaz will be the first President to complete his term, for the first time since the independence of Guinea-Bissau in 1974, are both encouraging steps towards political stability. However, the country continues to face many challenges, including the need to clarify the constitutional separation of powers, fight the illegal trafficking of narcotics and undertake institutional reforms of the defence, security and justice sectors. There have been delays in the upcoming legislative and presidential elections, planned for 2018 and 2019, respectively, which should be closely monitored, given their importance for political stability in Guinea-Bissau.

  2. The recommendations on the continuation of United Nations sanctions contained in my previous report remain valid and relevant. The root causes of instability have not been fully addressed and the political balance remains fragile, particularly in the light of the upcoming legislative and presidential elections. Those recommendations include: the maintenance of the present sanctions regime to signal to the people of Guinea-Bissau that the measures are applicable to all spoilers, regardless of their political or institutional affiliation, and that the Council stands ready to adjust the measures and designations as needed; the establishment of a panel of experts to support the Committee’s work; the development of clear benchmarks for lifting sanctions; and a review of the designated individuals, to determine whether they continue to meet the listing criteria.

  3. There is still broad consensus that sanctions have played, and continue to play, a positive role. They serve as a deterrent to the direct involvement of the security and defence forces in the political affairs of the country. However, some local interlocutors support the idea that the sanctions currently imposed on individuals should be reviewed, given the commendable behaviour of those individuals since 2012, and that those responsible for political instability and uncertainty should instead be designated for targeted measures. In this context, I take note of the decision of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) during its 53rd Summit, held on 31 July 2018 in Lomé, to lift the sanctions1 it had imposed earlier, on 4 February, on 19 individuals in GuineaBissau, as part of efforts aimed at restoring democratic governance and ensuring respect for the rule of law in the country.

  4. The military continues to respect the constitutional order and maintains a politically neutral role. It also continued to contribute to social activities and agricultural production, which gained the appreciation of the people of Guinea - Bissau. However, the risk of a military intervention could increase if important reforms in the security, defence and justice sectors are not implemented or if the security situation in the country deteriorates. Considering the positive conduct of the military subject to the travel ban, most interlocutors called for a review of the 2048 sanctions list.

  5. International donors, financial institutions and development banks, including the World Bank, have also welcomed the progress made by Guinea-Bissau in breaking the political impasse.

  6. Economic growth in the country remains generally positive, although the anticipated poorer cashew harvest, combined with the deterioration of basic public services, could pose social and economic challenges and may also worsen the level of food insecurity in upcoming months.